Has it begun?

This has been a strange year so far, weather-wise that is. It's been sub-freezing in northern California (enjoy those oranges while supply lasts, Mister), while there's been snow in southern California.

If you're thinking what I'm thinking, you're wondering if it's started already. Is the globe warming now? Considering the facts, it's getting tough to argue that the world is not changing fast. I say, leave that question to the experts.

What if this is just noise? Freak snow and storms don't necessarily imply a global phenomenon is underway. It could just be that this is a usual statistical aberration. A blip, and nothing else.

The problem with trends is that they're easy to spot in hindsight, and difficult to establish when you're in the thick of things. I don't think people have the statistical savvy to know what's going on, until much later.

The ability to distinguish signal from noise is a very critical one. In hindsight, of course, everything is clear. But in the present moment it's very difficult to determine if a blip in data is the beginning of a new trend. Most people make the mistake of assuming that two distinct data points constitute a trend (they don't, they just constitute a line) or, worse still, that two separate pieces of data are linked causally.

I recently read a wonderful and opinionated book called Fooled by Randomness that talks about this and other follies of the human mind when it comes to looking at statistical evidence. I'll write more on this later...just wanted to get back into the blogging habit.
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PS: Hi there - friends in Bangalore. ;-). Please comment on the blog so I know you're there!